By choosing tennis since your preferred sport for betting, you’ve got already given yourself an “edge” against people who bet on or offer odds on other sports. To use this “edge” to generate consistently, however, you’ll want to understand two fundamental principles first. Then apply the strength of mathematics.
Principle #1
It is sheer folly to put a tennis bet (or perhaps a bet on anything) that has a “traditional” bookmaker. The expression “You can’t beat the bookie” is axiomatic; you merely cannot beat the bookie after some time. It’s because chances always mathematically calculated and is overtaken by the bookmaker. Everyone knows (or should know about) which the bookie’s mathematical “edge” contrary to the punter is critical for him to produce a profit in order that he can be in business.
Computer technology has given rise to a whole new form of betting, referred to as “exchange betting” or “matched betting”. With “betting exchanges” there isn’t a bookie to get over; basically, there isn’t any middle-man. Every punter bets against another punter or punters somewhere available in the Internet ether. Any punter (or “trader”) can put a “back” bet that your player or team will win, and/or place a “lay” bet that your player or team will forfeit. Thus, any punter can decide to act being an ordinary bettor and/or being a bookmaker.
With exchange betting the possibilities are not set by the third-party or middle-man; they can be set with the punters themselves, who place requests for odds at which they may be prepared to position bets (whenever they wish to behave as a normal bettor), or place offers of odds at which these are prepared to lay bets (as long as they wish to behave as a bookmaker).
As the “back” bettors gradually lower their requested odds as well as the “lay” bettors gradually raise their offered odds, the application on the exchange betting internet site matches all of the back bets with each of the lay bets for the instant they coincide. The accounts in the “backers” or “layers” are then credited using winnings automatically a couple of seconds after the end with the event as outlined by its result.
Obviously, the technology for providing a real “fair” betting service should be paid for somehow. This payment is consumed the type of a commission within the punter’s net winnings by using an event (or “market”). That is, commission is charged only on any positive difference between winnings and losses within the same event.
This betting product is as close with a perfectly fair betting environment because it is possible to accomplish.
There are extremely few betting exchanges around, however, perhaps as the exchange betting software programs are so complex and as a consequence costly. The giant among exchange betting internet websites is Betfair, approximately 90% from the market on the time of writing. Others are the Global Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook as well as the World Bet Exchange (WBX). Betfair is in no way the most popular as it was the first ones to offer this “perfectly fair” betting environment, which is trusted to do accurately and instantly.
Principle #2
So, why should tennis betting offer you that “edge” over betting on other sports? The answer, though simple, is usually overlooked even by individuals who bet tennis regularly. And if you’re someone who’s never bet on tennis, you’d almost definitely not have realized the significance from the tennis scoring system about the betting.
Consider this fundamental difference between your tennis scoring system understanding that of probably another sport imaginable.
In other sports and games the trailing player or team must form the points gap by winning a time for every point they have lost so as to catch up on the leader. Only then are they going to start to proceed. This fact seems obvious.
In tennis, however, the trailing player or team can lose the primary set 6-0 (possibly using a deficit of 24 points). That team are able to win the other set with the most narrow of margins, 7-6 inside a tie-break, winning the set by a small number of points (as well as by winning fewer points compared to opponents, an exceptional but possible occurrence!).
As soon since the trailing player or team wins the 2nd set, the 2 main sides suddenly have even scores, while one player or team could have actually won more points as opposed to opponents.
This anomaly often carries a profound psychological affect on one or both sides, which affects the direction they play for one more few minutes, and for that reason also the betting odds requested and supplied by punters around the match. This, however, can be another aspect of tennis betting that could be the subject of another article. This article refers to the mathematical element of tennis betting and the ways to win money using this knowledge.
How to win at tennis betting
Now you are aware of the two of these fundamental principles, how will you use them to your benefit when making tennis bets?
The key’s not to be only a “backer” or maybe a “layer”, simply betting around the final upshot of an event. If you do that, you will forfeit out with time, because there’s always a tiny difference between your “back” odds as well as the “lay” odds — there have to be, otherwise there’d be no incentive for everyone to offer odds and there’d be no betting in any respect. Combine by using the commission you only pay on your net winnings, as well as the “edge” is against you mathematically (eventhough it is not as great much like conventional bookmakers).
The secret to winning at tennis betting shall be BOTH a “backer” AND a “layer”, but at different points throughout the event. This is the one other aspect of betting that distinguishes the exchange betting website from the traditional bookie. At the betting exchange you can put a back or lay bet at any time throughout the event, until eventually the very eleventh hour or the final point. This is called “in-play” betting.
Because in-play betting is allowed, chances for each opposing side change since the event progresses, based on the likelihood (as perceived with the punters) of a single one side or even the other being the eventual winner. The trick is to locate a back bet somewhere at certain odds and then place a lay bet on that side (or maybe a back bet for the other side) at better odds as fortunes change plus the odds swing as part of your favour. If you can accomplish this, you’ll win your bet overall, regardless from the outcome with the event — a real “win-win” scenario.
Why bet on tennis instead of on other sports?
Apart from Principle #2, explained earlier, tennis is wonderful for such “swing” betting, considering that the odds fluctuate after every place is played. There are therefore the greatest small swings to at least one side and then towards the other. This doesn’t happen in soccer, for instance, because goals are incredibly rare plus a goal shifts the extra edge suddenly and hugely on the scoring side.
Furthermore, a tennis match will surely have one of only two results; there may be no draw or tie; and considered one of only two players or teams can win. In horse racing, by way of example, the winner may appear from a many runners.
The more possible outcomes you will discover to factor into your equation, the greater difficult it is always to win. (Despite this obvious logic, soccer and horse racing remain the 2 main most popular sports for betting, probably for historical reasons. Tennis has already been third in popularity, however, weight loss punters get the fact that it truly is easier to generate money betting on tennis than on any sport.)
“In-play” betting or “pre-event” betting?
Now that you could have — it can be hoped — understood and absorbed the generalities of exchange betting plus the peculiarities of tennis scoring, it’s time to explain information of how you are able to win at tennis betting.
Earlier it had been stated that this secret to winning at tennis betting shall be both a “backer” along with a “layer”, but at different points in the event, placing bets at different times through the event as fortunes change as well as the odds swing inside your favour. This can be done with both “in-play” betting and “pre-event” betting.
One method used in combination with in-play betting is known as “scalping”. As its name suggests, scalping involves skimming a smaller profit by backing or laying at precisely the right moment since the odds move slightly within your favour, perhaps when one player scores 2 or 3 consecutive points, and repeating the method again and again. The biggest disadvantage to scalping is that it’s very time-consuming and fraught with mental and physical tension. Not only must you make payment for full focus on what’s happening through the match by live video broadcast, and you must also catch just the right moments when to bet, and that is, in reality, made impossible with the 5-second delay imposed from the exchange betting software between time you placed the bet and also the time it can be accepted.
We’re not elaborating within this here because, as mentioned previously, this information is about winning by mathematics, not through the sweat of the brow. The maths aspect involves betting, not over the event, but before the big event starts. That is, pre-event betting.
Mathematics usually do not lie!
There are a couple of tennis betting “systems”, some purely manual, others using software packages, a few of which are enormously complicated. From the investigations on the writer (a mathematician), they each require the input, at some time, of an “probability factor” because of the bettor. This probability factor is truly the odds from which you want your “balancing” bet (the “lay” bet about the “backed” side or “back” bet about the opposing side) to get triggered, providing you the “win-win” scenario mentioned earlier.
So, how will you determine the price of this probability factor? That, dear reader, would be the crucial point with the whole matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting “system” together and determines if it succeeds or fails, whether shipped to you or lose.
Up to now, it appears, this probability factor has had to become determined from the sheer experience of the few seasoned professional gamblers, or by trial-and-error guesswork by lesser mortals. Little wonder that a lot of punters lose or don’t win around they could because they don’t know the EXACT value was required to optimize their bets!
Accuracy is fully necessary when determining the probability factor, to be able to maximize the probabilities of winning consistently. A search about the Web to get a tool to calculate it proved negative. The writer therefore created the one that encompasses not just all aspects of exchange betting but also the peculiarities on the tennis scoring system, and named it the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, for want of your better name. The probability factor is calculated to two decimal places, merely by entering the pre-event possibility of both opposing sides, and possesses enabled the article author to make consistently greater than 10% cash in on tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009.
As a parallel test, mcdougal also placed bets based on “gut feeling”, in sufficient numbers to ascertain a trend. It resulted in the loss of 10% on the working capital (or “bank”).
Other tests were done, with all the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, by betting on other sports where small odds swings occur, including American Football, snooker and darts (extended matches only, otherwise the swings are way too large). The results here pretty much covered the commissions paid on winnings; so, it can be not worthwhile.
It seems, then, which the particular mathematical formula or algorithm (which is quite complex) discussed here successful only along with the unique scoring system of tennis.
Conclusion
As a scientist, the author feels that it really is highly probable to win at sports betting consistently after some time only when the subsequent factors exist:
- An exchange betting site is used, not much of a conventional betting site. (Beware of many sites that pretend to provide exchange betting by appearing browsing engine most current listings for “exchange betting”! Ensure that their software system assits you both to back as well as lay bets at any odds you would like against other punters, not contrary to the house. If in doubt, make sure that their internet site looks like one at Betfair.)
AND
- The sport is tennis, simply because of its unique scoring system.
AND
3(a) You discover and become familiar with in-play betting and are able to devote most your time glued to some computer screen while following each match, sometimes over one simultaneously.
OR
3(b) You use software that says to you exactly it can be to request and offer plus the stakes to use in pre-event betting within a short while, thus permitting you to get on with your normal life.